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Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2013 to 2023
John Skeen (ed)
This report projects that economic growth will remain slow in 2013, as gradual improvement in many of the forces that drive the economy is offset by the effects of budgetary changes scheduled to occur under current law. After 2013, economic growth will speed up, causing the unemployment rate to decline and inflation and interest rates to eventually rise from their current low levels. Nevertheless, the unemployment rate is expected to remain above 7.5% through 2014; if that happens, 2014 will be the sixth consecutive year with unemployment exceeding 7.5% of the labor force äóî the longest such period in the past 70 years. In this reportäó»s baseline projections, deficits continue to shrink over the next few years, falling to 2.4% of GDP by 2015. Yet deficits are projected to increase later in the coming decade because of the pressures of an aging population, rising health care costs, an expansion of federal subsidies for health insurance, and growing interest payments on federal debt. As a result, federal debt held by the public is projected to remain historically high relative to the size of the economy for the next decade. By 2023, if current laws remain in place, debt will equal 77% of GDP and be on an upward path. Figures and tables. This is a print on demand report.
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