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Small Macroeconometric Model of the Philippine Economy; and Empirical Assessment of Sustainability and Feasibility of Government Debt: The Philippines Case
Geoffrey Ducanes (au)
Two reports issued by the Asian Devít. Bank: (1) Describes a small quarterly macroeconometric model of the Philippine (PH) economy. The model consists of sectors of private consumption, invest., govít., trade, production, costs, money, & labor. The tracking perform. of the model is evaluated & found satisfactory. The PH govít. must address its debt problem for it to achieve higher future growth. It is highly vulnerable to external shocks. (2) Assesses empirically the sustainability & feasibility of the govít. debt in the PH using the No Ponzi Game criterion. Both historical data & forecasts generated by a quarterly macroeconomic model of the Philippines are used in the assessment. Stochastic simulations are carried out to mimic future uncertainty. Illus.
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