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Diane Publishing Books
How Accurate are Real-Time Estimates of Output Trends and Gaps?: A Reprint from “Economic Quarterly”
Mark M. Watson (au)
Real-time estimates of output gaps & trends are important tools for macroeconomic analysis. But how accurate are estimates of real-time gaps & trends? This article discusses the problem of estimating gaps & trends in real time & constructs measures of their precision. The analysis is based on band-pass filtering methods augmented with univariate forecasts. The empirical analysis suggests that there is considerable uncertainty associated with real-time estimates of trends & gaps. Charts & tables.
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