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Diane Publishing Books
Aviation Forecasting: FAA Should Implement Additional Risk-Management Practices in Forecasting Aviation Activity
Gerald L. Dillingham (au)
Both of the Federal Aviation Administrationńˇ╗s (FAA) annual activity forecasts -- the National Aerospace Forecast (Aerospace) and airport-level Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) -- have consistently overestimated aviation activity since 2004 and 2010, respectively, and have been less accurate the further out they forecast. While forecasting is inherently uncertain, managing that uncertainty is essential to informed decisions. This report discusses the accuracy of FAAńˇ╗s forecasts from 2004 through 2014 and strengths and limitations of FAAńˇ╗s consideration of risks in developing its forecasts. It focuses on the use of the Aerospace and TAF forecasts to inform key operational and investment decisions. Tables and figures. This is a print on demand report.
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