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Global Macroeconomic Developments Drive Downturn in U.S. Agricultural Exports
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Bryce Cooke (au); Getachew Nigatu (au); Kari Heerman (au); Maurice Landes (au); Ralph Seeley (au)
Global demand for agricultural exports is tied closely to rising incomes in developing-country markets, and the U.S. share of this trade is sensitive to the value of the dollar relative to the currencies of U.S. export markets and competitors. U.S. exports of bulk commodities are particularly sensitive to the strength of the dollar, while consumer-oriented goods, which account for a large and growing share of U.S. agricultural exports, appear to be less sensitive. This report shows that the macroeconomic outlook underlying the 2016 USDA agricultural projections calls for substantially slower global income growth and stronger dollar appreciation against the currencies of major U.S. agricultural markets and competitors than the 2015 USDA projections. There have been significant reductions in both the price and volume of projected U.S. exports. The largest price and volume impacts are on crops, with relatively smaller impacts on meats. Figures and tables. This is a print on demand report.
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