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Diane Publishing Books
House Prices and Credit Constraints: Making Sense of the U.S. Experience
John V. Duca (au); John Muellbauer (au); Anthony Murphy (au)
The recent boom and bust in U.S. housing markets has sparked interest in modeling the links between house prices and credit standards. Most U.S. house price models break down in the mid-2000s due to the omission of exogenous changes in mortgage credit supply (associated with the sub-prime mortgage boom) from house price-to-rent ratio and inverted housing demand models. Previous models lack data on credit constraints facing first-time home-buyers. Incorporating a measure of credit conditions -- the cyclically adjusted loan-to-value ratio for first-time buyers -- into house price-to-rent ratio models yields more precisely estimated effects, stable long-run relationships, reasonable speeds of adjustment and improved model fits. Illus. A print on demand pub.
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