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Diane Publishing Books
USDA Agricultural Projections to 2019
Paul Westcott (au)
This report provides projections for the agricultural sector through 2019. Projections cover agricultural commodities, agricultural trade, and aggregate indicators of the sector, such as farm income and food prices. The projections are based on specific assumptions aboutmacroeconomic conditions, policy, weather, and international developments, with no domestic or external shocks to global agricultural markets. Provisions of current law are assumed to remain in effect through the projection period. The projections are one representative scenario for the agricultural sector for the next decade. As such, the report provides a point of departure for discussion of alternative farm sector outcomes that could result under different assumptions. Prospects for the agricultural sector in the near term reflect continuing U.S. and global adjustments to the recession of 2008-09 and the subsequent economic recovery. A resumption of steady global economic growth will support increases in consumption, trade, and prices in the longer run. Additionally, longrun developments for global agriculture reflect continued demand for biofuels, particularly in the U.S. and the European Union. U.S. retail food prices increase more than general inflation through 2012, but then return to a longer term relationship of rising less than the general inflation rate over the last half of the projection period. Tables and figures.
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