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PCE and CPI Inflation Differentials: Converting Inflation Forecasts: A Reprint from the “Economic Review”
Craig S. Hakkio (au)
The Fed. Reserve will release quarterly inflation forecasts based on the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, which is thought to be the single most comprehensive and compelling measure of consumer prices. However, no single measure of inflation is perfect, and the Commission will continue to monitor a range of measures when forming its view about inflation prospects, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI). But the inflation differentials for the two measures can change significantly over time. To convert between CPI and PCE inflation projections, economists must construct statistical models to explain and predict the inflation differentials. Hakkio estimates a set of models that analysts can use to make such conversions.
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