Join our mailing list!



Official PayPal Seal

(Your shopping cart is empty)

  Home > Diane Publishing Books >

Signal or Noise?: Implications of the Term Premium for Recession Forecasting: A Reprint from the “Economic Policy Review”
Since the 1970s, an inverted yield curve has been

 
Our Price: $10.00
By Joshua V. Rosenberg (au); Samuel Maurer (au)
Year: 2008
Pages: 10
Binding Paperback

Product Code: 1437909450

Description
 
Since the 1970s, an inverted yield curve has been a reliable signal of an imminent recession. One interpretation of this signal is that markets expect monetary policy to ease as the Federal Reserve responds to an upcoming deterioration in economic conditions. Some have argued that the yield curve inversion in Aug. 2006 did not signal an imminent recession, but instead was triggered by an unusually low level of the term premium. This article examines whether changes in the term premium can distort the recession signal given by an inverted yield curve. The authors find that the expectations component of the term spread is a leading indicator of recession, while the term premium component is not. Tables and graphs.

Share your knowledge of this product with other customers... Be the first to write a review
Diane Publishing Co
PO Box 617
Darby, PA 19023-0617
1-800-782-3833
 About Us
 Become an Affiliate
 Privacy Policy
 Send Us Feedback
 
Company Info | Advertising | Product Index | Category Index | Help | Terms of Use
Copyright � 2004 Diane Publishing Company. All Rights Reserved.
Built with Volusion