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Quantitative Models of Sovereign Default and the Threat of Financial Exclusion: A Reprint from the “Economic Quarterly”
Juan Carlos Hatchondo (au); Leonardo Martinez (au); Horacio Sapriza (au)
Studies the role of the assumption that countries can be punished with financial exclusion after a sovereign default. It describes the business cycle properties of a sovereign default model with the exclusion punishment & compares them with those of the same model without the exclusion punishment. Both models build on the framework studied in Aguiar & Gopinath (2006). Finds that the presence of exclusion punishment is responsible for a high fraction of the sovereign debt that can be sustained in equilibrium. On the other hand, the cyclical behavior of consumption, output, interest rate, & net exports are not fundamentally different in the models with & without exclusion. Charts & tables.
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