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Has the Behavior of Inflation and Long-Term Inflation Expectations Changed?: A Reprint from the “Economic Review”
Todd E. Clark (au); Taisuke Nakata (au)
From 1975 to 1980, inflation in core (non-food and non-energy) consumer prices rose sharply as crude oil prices more than tripled. Yet, as crude oil prices quadrupled from late 2001 to 2007, core consumer price inflation remained flat. While inflation expectations rose significantly in the second half of the 1970s, they remained largely unchanged from 2001 through 2007. The increased stability of inflation and long-term expectations raises the possibility that the behavior of both variables has fundamentally changed. There are two possible forms of change: the influence of long-run expectations on inflation and the anchoring of inflation and expectations. The dynamics of inflation and long-term inflation expectations have changed modestly. Ill.
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