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Iraq Election Scenarios: Anticipating Alternative Futures
Alan Schwartz (au)
Following the elections in Iraq, the elected National Assembly and new interim government began grappling with Iraq’s substantial post-election challenge -- governing a nation. In Aug. 2004, the U.S. Institute of Peace launched a novel project in which it sought to develop multiple scenarios for the Iraq elections. This paper describes that project and illustrates how scenario planning can help policymakers grapple with great uncertainty and complex political environments. It was prepared by Alan Schwartz of PolicyFutures, LLC, who facilitated the scenarios exercise. Illustrations.
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