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Diane Publishing Books
Detecting Recessions in the Great Moderation: A Real-Time Analysis: A Reprint from the “Economic Review”
Troy Davig (au)
In the 1970s and early 1980s, the U.S. economy whipsawed up and down. Since then, economic activity stabilized considerably, entering a period economists call the “Great Moderation.” It has become harder to determine when the economy dips into recession. Economists have a variety of methods to determine when the economy is entering a recession, which this article discusses. Davig uses a large set of data in a “business cycle tracking” model. The model accounts for shifts in oveall economic volatility -- to capture the Great Moderation -- and sends a signal when the economy is shifting between periods of low and high economic activity. The model can be used to extract a signal regarding whether the economy is likely heading for a recession.
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