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Diane Publishing Books
Weather and the Calculated Risk: Exploiting Forecast Uncertainty for Operational Risk Management: A Reprint from “Air and Space Power Journal”
F. Anthony Eckel (au); Jeffrey G. Cunningham (au); Dale E. Hetke (au); Scot T. Heckman (au)
Contains two articles: (I) “Weather & the Calculated Risk: Exploiting Forecast Uncertainty for Operational Risk Management.” Today’s standard weather support lacks a description of forecast uncertainty, thus limiting the forecast’s utility. However, significant scientific & technological advances now make it possible to overcome that limitation by applying weather-forecast uncertainty information to the Air Force’s decision-making process. The authors employ cost-effective ensemble forecasting in 2 different scenarios to demonstrate how principles of operational risk mgt. can yield marked improvements in combat capability (effectiveness) & conservation of resources (efficiency). (2) “Integrating Weather in Net-Centric Warfare: A Case for Refocusing Human Resources in Air Force Weather.” Dwindling manpower in Air Force Weather (AFW) & an increasingly net-centric Air Force are forcing a change from the days of face-to-face weather briefing. Furthermore, the Air Force needs a better degree of forecast consistency. The author proposes that automated forecasts & forecast tailoring represent significant changes for AFW but that their implementation will remove potential human bottlenecks, enable greater detail for decision makers, & increase the speed of access for all users. Illus.
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