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Below the Line: Estimates of Negative Equity Among Nonprime Mortgage Borrowers: A Reprint from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York “Economic Policy Review”
Andrew F. Haughwout (au); Ebiere Okah (au)
The boom in nonprime mortgage lending that occurred in the U.S. between 2004 and 2006 was quickly followed by rapid increases in the rate of delinquencies and foreclosures on these loans. This pronounced deterioration alarmed investors, the public, and policymakers. Significantly, uncertainty about the source of the decline in loan quality has played a key role in the credit crunch that began in mid-2007. This study shows that nonprime loan originations rose sharply after 2003,and these loans became delinquent far more quickly than had earlier vintages. Indeed, loans originated in 2004 performed poorly compared with earlier vintages, and the 2005 and 2006 vintages became seriously delinquent within a year of origination at rates that the 2003 vintage took twenty and thirty months to reach, respectively. This report shows that negative equity is closely associated with the time and place of mortgage origination and with the existence of subordinate liens against the property. Further, borrowers in negative equity are twice aslikely as those in positive equity to be seriously delinquent, or in default, on their first-lien mortgage. Tables and graphs.
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